By JD GLOBAL MEDIA
The United States has completed the withdrawal of its remaining military forces from Iraq, bringing an end to a US military presence that began with the 2003 invasion and later evolved into a multinational campaign against the Islamic State group.
The final departure on Wednesday, September 30, follows a 2024 agreement between Washington and Baghdad to end the US-led coalition's military mission against Islamic State in Iraq. Most American forces had already left bases across the country, but personnel remained in northern Iraq, particularly in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, until the final stage of the withdrawal.
The end of the military deployment marks an important change in Iraq's security environment. Responsibility for countering remaining Islamic State networks and maintaining national security now rests increasingly with Iraqi security institutions, while questions remain about the influence of Iran-aligned armed groups and the country's ability to prevent militant organisations from rebuilding their capabilities.
The withdrawal was planned before the latest stage of the wider conflict involving the United States and Iran, but its completion has taken place against a significantly changed regional security landscape.
A Military Presence That Lasted More Than Two Decades
The American military entered Iraq in 2003 after the US-led invasion that removed Saddam Hussein from power. The intervention was followed by a prolonged insurgency, sectarian violence and the development of armed groups that challenged both Iraqi authorities and foreign forces.
US troops formally ended their primary combat mission in 2011, but the withdrawal did not permanently end American military involvement in the country.
The rise of Islamic State changed the security situation. After the militant group captured large areas of Iraq and Syria in 2014, the United States returned with a coalition that provided military assistance, intelligence, surveillance and air support to Iraqi and Kurdish forces.
The campaign eventually helped Iraqi forces retake territory previously controlled by Islamic State. By 2017, the group had lost its territorial control in Iraq, although its members and support networks continued to pose a security threat.
The American military presence subsequently became much smaller and increasingly focused on advising, intelligence and counterterrorism support.
Under the agreement reached by Washington and Baghdad in 2024, the coalition's military mission in Iraq was scheduled to end and the remaining forces were to leave the country.
That process has now reached its final stage.
What The Withdrawal Means For Iraqi Security
One of the central questions following the withdrawal is whether Iraqi security forces can independently maintain pressure on Islamic State networks.
Islamic State no longer controls the large territory it once held, but the organisation has retained sleeper cells and underground networks. These groups have historically used remote areas to conduct attacks, intimidate communities and maintain their ability to recruit and finance operations.
American forces had provided Iraqi forces with intelligence, aerial surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. The withdrawal therefore represents more than the physical departure of troops from military bases.
It also changes the level of direct American military support available to Iraqi forces.
Iraqi security institutions have spent years developing their own capabilities, including specialised counterterrorism units and intelligence structures. Iraqi forces also fought the Islamic State campaign directly and have extensive experience in counterinsurgency operations.
The challenge now is to maintain those capabilities without depending on a permanent foreign military presence.
Security officials and analysts have warned that any significant weakness could create opportunities for Islamic State cells to rebuild. The concern is particularly focused on intelligence, surveillance and the ability to detect militant movements before they develop into larger attacks.
The organisation's previous rise demonstrated how quickly a weakened security environment can be exploited by an armed group.
At the same time, there is no indication that Islamic State has returned to the territorial strength it possessed a decade ago. The current threat is primarily associated with dispersed networks rather than the large-scale territorial occupation that characterised the group's peak.
Iran's Expanding Influence
The American withdrawal also has implications for the balance of influence inside Iraq.
Iran has developed extensive political, economic and security relationships in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein. Several powerful Iraqi armed groups maintain close relationships with Tehran, while some are integrated into Iraq's broader security structure.
Iran and its allies have portrayed the departure of American forces as a major development for Iraqi sovereignty and a reduction of foreign military influence.
The issue is complicated by the fact that Iraq has sought to maintain relationships with multiple regional and international powers.
For Baghdad, the challenge is to exercise authority over national security while managing relationships with armed groups that possess significant political and military influence.
The Iraqi government has previously indicated that weapons should ultimately remain under state control. However, the process of bringing all armed groups under a single national security framework has proved difficult.
The withdrawal therefore does not mean that Iraq's security environment has become simpler.
Instead, the country enters a new phase in which the Iraqi state is expected to take greater responsibility for managing competing security interests.
Kurdish Region Faces A New Security Reality
The withdrawal is particularly significant for Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, where American troops remained until the final phase of the departure.
Kurdish forces were important partners for the United States during the campaign against Islamic State. Peshmerga forces fought the militant group and received substantial international military assistance.
The Kurdish region has also faced attacks involving drones and missiles during the wider confrontation between the United States and Iran.
The departure of American personnel and some military equipment changes the security calculations for the region.
Kurdish officials have expressed concern about the reduction of American protection and the removal of certain defensive capabilities. At the same time, the Iraqi government has been seeking to strengthen its control over national defence and security arrangements.
The question now is how Baghdad, Erbil and other security institutions will coordinate against threats without the same level of direct American military involvement.
This could become particularly important if militant groups attempt to exploit political disagreements between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government.
A Different Role For The United States
Although American troops have left Iraq, the withdrawal does not necessarily mean that Washington's relationship with Baghdad has ended.
The two countries are expected to continue diplomatic, economic and security cooperation.
The nature of that relationship is likely to change from one involving a US military deployment to one based more heavily on bilateral cooperation, training, intelligence sharing and diplomatic engagement.
The United States also maintains significant economic relationships with Iraq.
One important area is Iraq's oil revenue and financial system. Iraq's economy remains heavily dependent on oil exports, meaning that the country's financial relationships with international institutions and the US-led global financial system continue to have strategic importance.
Consequently, the end of the military deployment should not be interpreted as the end of American influence in Iraq.
Instead, it represents a transition from direct military involvement to other forms of engagement.
The Legacy Of The 2003 Invasion
The withdrawal also closes one of the longest chapters of American military involvement abroad.
The 2003 invasion fundamentally changed Iraq's political and security system. The subsequent years were marked by insurgency, sectarian conflict, the rise of al-Qaeda in Iraq and later the emergence of Islamic State.
Thousands of American military personnel died during the Iraq war and subsequent operations, while the conflict caused enormous loss of life and displacement among Iraqis.
The departure therefore carries different meanings for different groups.
For some Iraqis, the end of the American military presence represents the restoration of national sovereignty and the conclusion of a long period of foreign military involvement.
For others, the withdrawal raises concerns about whether the security improvements achieved during the campaign against Islamic State can be preserved.
For the United States, it represents the completion of a long-planned reduction in military involvement.
For Iran and Iran-aligned groups, it removes a major foreign military presence from a country where Tehran has built extensive relationships over the past two decades.
What Happens After September 30?
The immediate priority for Iraq will be maintaining security after the final American departure.
The Iraqi government will have to demonstrate that national security institutions can continue counterterrorism operations, protect critical infrastructure and respond to armed threats without depending on American forces stationed inside the country.
Islamic State remains a concern, although its capabilities are considerably different from those during its territorial expansion.
The government will also face the complicated issue of armed groups operating outside complete state control.
Another challenge will be maintaining cooperation between federal security institutions and Kurdish forces.
At the same time, Iraq will have to manage its relationships with Iran, the United States, Turkey and other regional powers.
The country's geographic position places it at the centre of several competing regional interests. Iraq borders Iran, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, while its political and economic relationships extend far beyond the region.
The withdrawal therefore does not remove Iraq from regional competition. Instead, it places greater responsibility on Iraqi institutions to manage the country's strategic relationships while protecting its national interests.
A New Chapter For Iraq
The completion of the US military withdrawal represents a major transition for Iraq.
More than two decades after American forces entered the country, Iraq is moving into a period in which its own security institutions will carry greater responsibility for protecting the state.
The outcome will depend on several factors, including the ability of Iraqi forces to contain Islamic State remnants, the government's handling of armed groups, cooperation between Baghdad and the Kurdistan region, and the country's management of relationships with competing regional powers.
The departure also demonstrates how Iraq's security environment has evolved.
The country is no longer facing the same territorial Islamic State threat that prompted the return of US forces in 2014. However, neither is it free from armed-group activity, regional competition or the possibility of renewed militant violence.
For Baghdad, the end of the foreign military deployment is therefore both a political milestone and a security responsibility.
The next phase will be judged not by whether foreign forces remain, but by whether Iraqi institutions can maintain national security, prevent militant groups from rebuilding and preserve stability while navigating a complex regional environment.
As the final American troops leave Iraq, the country enters a new period in which the central question is no longer how long foreign forces will remain, but how effectively Iraq can manage its security and sovereignty on its own terms.
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